Andrew Chibuye is the Country Senior Partner of PwC (PricewaterhouseCoopers) in Zambia. But since 2021, he has also become a respected economic voice in Zambia’s ever-evolving business climate. These days, we can say that when Andrew speaks, people listen, or at least pay special attention. He draws on almost 23 years of world-class experience, all spent with PwC. I interviewed Andrew for the Tabletalk section in 2022, after he had become the top man at PwC. The article was titled “The Pursuit of Relevance”, his defining personal ethos.
This ethos was the bedrock of his venture into economic commentary. He tells me how this all came about: “I became Country Senior Partner in the same year that Zambia defaulted on its sovereign debt. The economic outlook was uncertain. COVID-19 then put pressure on the economy, key sectors were down, inflation was high, the exchange rate collapsed, and there was election uncertainty. As a professional, I was asking myself what was front and centre at the time, and it came down to the economy. People wanted to know what was happening. I would become agitated hearing arguments based on misinformation during that period.”
The trigger point was the 2022 budget reading, when the Minister of Finance stated that the mineral royalty tax would be made tax-deductible again. “Shortly after, I heard a debate on the radio about the removal of this tax altogether. That didn’t sit well with me as a citizen with some understanding of economics. So I decided to help people understand complex topics and empower them to have their own discussions. My framework is always: this is the issue, this is what you need to know, and then I leave people to formulate their own opinions.”
Emerging economies remain plagued by a myriad of issues that continue to hold them back. These issues include infrastructure deficits, macroeconomic volatility, political and regulatory uncertainty, income inequality and access to affordable capital. Zambia is no exception. The economy has seen a dramatic resurgence over the last few years, driven by progress in debt restructuring, a more stable exchange rate, increased trade and investment, and reduced inflation within the 6–8 per cent target band. Despite these efforts, everyday Zambians continue to feel the pinch.
From Andrew’s standpoint, the challenge is both structural and systemic. There is an inherent disconnect between macro (broader national-level) and micro (household-level) economic performance. It is structural because economic development has a built-in lag effect, meaning there is a delay between the macro indicators showing improvement and citizens feeling the full benefits. And it is systemic because economic progress takes time to permeate the entire country, especially in a large country like Zambia. Andrew uses the analogy of GDP (national productivity) as a big water-filled tank, with the pipes as the systems, infrastructure and policies that deliver water to thirsty citizens.
“People need to understand where the pulse of the economy is. Big pieces like mining, agriculture and energy drive Zambia’s recent economic recovery. Now mining, for example, is not happening everywhere. So, if you are sitting in a part of the country where economic revival is not happening, you will say the economic indicators are false. We saw the recent Mingomba mine shaft sinking in Chililabombwe, where accommodation was full across several towns on the Copperbelt, and they estimate they will need accommodation for more than 2,000 people when operations start. The key is being able to adapt and follow the opportunities. It may need people to reskill and retool to take advantage of economic development. That, for me, is the biggest issue: how do we bridge that gap between the macro and micro?”
The government has set ambitious targets to achieve 10 million metric tonnes of maize, 10 gigawatts of power generation, 5 million tourist arrivals, 3 million tonnes of copper, 3 million tonnes of soya beans, 1 million tonnes of wheat and US$1 billion in beef exports. Many have debated the feasibility of these numbers, especially the copper production target, the commodity that accounts for around 75 per cent of Zambia’s export earnings. Andrew believes the numbers are a guidepost but not the destination. “We may or may not achieve the numbers, but we will dramatically improve our trajectory and productivity as a country. When you set strong targets, you have something to aim for, and that gives you a sense of urgency as a country. It’s like the student aiming to get 100 per cent on the test; getting 85 per cent is a good score, especially when they were previously scoring 50 per cent.”
If these targets set the direction of travel, consistent policy is the fuel that gets us there. This topic sits close to Andrew’s heart. His father, like himself, was an accountant and a partner at Deloitte back in the day. Andrew recently discovered a budget analysis his father had prepared for the 1985 national budget. We reviewed it together. That analysis could be a substitute for a budget analysis today, 41 years later. The reason? Policy inconsistency, which Andrew believes could be the biggest barrier to progress.
“The reason why we haven’t moved on from those 1985 priorities is that every incumbent government has started from scratch, which negates any progress made by the outgoing government. Previous policies were not bad per se, but the fact that every change of government amounts to a reset means that, over the long term, we make no real progress as a country. Why are countries like Rwanda and Singapore thriving? It’s because for years, the policy direction has been consistent.”
As we wrap up, I ask Andrew what story he is telling his PwC clients about Zambia. “You need to move now, or you miss the moment! The best time to move is when the value is low, and Zambia is moving past that quickly. We are pointing our clients toward energy, mining, value addition and infrastructure, especially in areas still being developed, such as Mingomba and North-Western Province. There is also an opportunity in support sectors like finance and ICT infrastructure, but the best time was yesterday; the next best is now.”
